“soft landing” predicted in Irish property market

September 4, 2018

Judging by this piece in the Irish Times, we are heading for a “soft landing” in the property market within the next 3 years. We in Sherry FitzGerald Catherine O’Reilly think you will agree that this is good news, as the ‘Celtic Tiger, boom and bust’ years are certainly something well behind us!  Values in Wicklow town are currently approximately 20% below peak values and, while we are seeing steady growth in values year on year since the market improved, we do not see the same “heat” in the market and ferocious bidding that would have been evident in 2007/8.  Central Bank regulations and stricter lender controls are ensuring that the buyers we see are thinking long and hard about their purchases. However they feel very strongly that there is still excellent value for their money in Wicklow and the surrounding areas, as opposed to Dublin. Below is a summary of the article:

“Irish house prices, along with housing markets elsewhere in Europe, are heading for a “soft landing”, ratings agency S&P said on Monday. But a soft landing in an Irish context still means another three years of strong growth until supply catches up with demand around 2021.

Economists at the ratings agency said on Monday that house price growth in Ireland will ease – but won’t turn negative – as supply catches up with demand. It is forecasting price growth of 9.5 per cent this year, but easing thereafter to 8 per cent in 2019, 7 per cent in 2020 and 6 per cent in 2021.

However, while growth might ease, based on these figures it does mean that a house costing €300,000 as of end 2018 will still be worth almost €70,000 more by end 2021 – a substantial hike nonetheless for people saving to buy a home. Moreover, S&P is forecasting the strongest growth rates for the Irish economy out to end 2021. Indeed its 6 per cent growth rate for 2021 is far in advance of that forecast for nine other European economies, with a growth rate of 4.5 per cent predicted for the UK, 3 per cent for Spain, and 3 per cent for Germany.”